A Letter To The Board

Having written about Stuart McCall’s departure, and subsequently read the T&A and Boy From Brazil accounts of the legend’s leaving, I decided to contact the club. Here is the text:

McCall Out – What Now?

Having been the main talking point throughout this season, the managerial change has now come to pass. Manager, former player, club legend, and all-round good guy Stuart McCall – Bradford City’s own Roy of the Rovers – has left the club for the third time.

The Wisdom of Football Fans

We all see the game differently – that much is clear. Unfortunately, little else is clear. Should Thorne have been subbed last night? Was Boulding the man to save the game? Should the team have been booed for putting in effort but failing to get reward for that effort? Who should have taken the penalty? Is our narrow formation the reason we are yet to score?

Every fan has the right to have their say, but given the contradictory opinions I hear at every home match what value can be placed on the views of football fans (specifically Bradford City fans, in this instance)?

While we are all wise after the event (hindsight is 20/20, dontcha’ know), it is very difficult to predict in advance: which tactics will work best with the personnel available; which players will show the best form and frame of mind; who might be able to change a game in our favour (as an ‘impact sub’). We also lack inside knowledge – which players are carrying niggling injuries, who has been distracted by off-the-field matters, or other “unknown unknowns”. I think I’ve yet to hear a fan correctly predict which player will perform best in any given football match (although the outcome is subjective), while correct predictions of scorelines and scorers are almost equally rare (and this time the outcome is objective fact). Let’s face it – if football fans were that good at predictions, the bookies would all have gone bust by now.

Accepting that we are poor at predicting outcomes of football matches, I have to question why fans believe that their after-the-event opinions – for example, of what would have happened if only the manager had decided on the substitution they would have preferred him to have made – are valid. Sometimes the crowd (or elements of the crowd) are actually proved wrong. Anyone remember a section of the fans booing the introduction of Barry Conlon in one particular game? Bazinho proceeded to make the boo-boys eat their words by scoring City’s goal. I remember hearing fans around me on the Kop shouting in response to the subsitution “that’s shit McCall – shit”, making similar comments, and booing as the substitution was made. These fans believed that Conlon was not the man to make a difference on that occasion, but those fans were wrong. Yet the same people continue to believe that if McCall made different decisions (those they would have made themselves if they were manager, presumably) then City would see better outcomes. Frankly, they’re kidding themselves. This is only possible because their decisions remain hypothetical – they didn’t happen, so we cannot see (or judge) the outcome of them.

A further note

One thing that, as fans, we don’t seem to take into account is the part that chance plays in results. Against Lincoln, we could so easily have scored – shots saved by their keeper, goal-bound efforts that beat the keeper blocked by a defender, a penalty saved by the lad we tried to sign as our goalkeeper. Luck matters. I’m no statistician and I won’t pretend I understand risk and chance, but there is a website, understandinguncertainty.org, that has calculated that in the Premier League in 2008/09:

22% of the variability is due to chance and 78% due to genuine differences between the teams. This is a low contribution of chance, comparable with that in Greece and Turkey where the leagues contain a wide range of talent. Some leagues, in contrast, have contained teams of essentially equal ability where the league positions at the end of the season could be totally attributable to chance: for example the Scottish 2nd Division in 2002-2003 in which after 36 games each the teams all finished between 36 and 59 points: poor Cowdenbeath were at the bottom but the points show that they were really no worse than any other team, just the unluckiest.

22% of the variability in the Premier League is due to chance, and in other leagues where there are not significant gaps in quality (League Two, for example, hardly has a “big four” that are obviously better than the other teams in the division as has been the case in recent Premier League history) chance plays a bigger part. While commentators may claim that luck tends to even out over a season, I am not convinced that this is the case. Maybe luck plays a bigger part than they (or most football fans – including myself) realise.

Should City Sack McCall?

Well, as far as I’m concerned the answer to the question I posed in the title is “no”. Deciding a manager’s future based on a single game would be ridiculous in my opinion. In 2004, Newcastle United decided to sack Bobby Robson on the basis of the first four matches of the season despite his performances in previous seasons (fourth, third and fifth in the Premier League). Sacking McCall now would probably not be quite as irrational a decision as that taken by Freddy Shepherd, but think for a moment about how Newcastle have fared since Robson left. Souness, Roeder, Allardyce, Keegan, Kinnear, Hughton, and Shearer have all been in the manager’s office at Newcastle since then and the finishing positions in the Premier League under the managers following Robson have been 14, 13, 7, 12 and 18. The consequences of irrational decisions taken too hastily can be long-lasting and serious. Sacking a manager after one match is irrational – performances should be evaluated over a longer period.

City News Roundup: James Hanson, Bookies’ Odds, and Some Poor Reporting

It’s been reported that three players have left Guiseley during this summer break and that “striker James Hanson may yet follow”. According to manager Steve Kittrick: “He will be having trials with Bradford City in the pre-season and if anything develops there we would not stand in his way.” (Source: http://www.wharfedaleobserver.co.uk/sport/4418407.Guiseley_hoping_to_hang_on_to_hanson/)

Bradford City 3-0 Rotherham

Absolutely superb. I’m not just talking about Andy Warrington’s performance in the Rotherham goal, I’m talking (shockingly) about Bradford City’s performance as a team – and as individual members of that team. Rhys Evans did everything that was asked of him – including some very good saves indeed. Paul Arnison was solid at right back, Graeme Lee excelled in the air and made several good blocks, Zesh Rehman looked a different player at centre-half, and Luke O’Brien looked back to his best at left back. Nicky Law was too much for the Rotherham defence to handle (as evidenced by his being hacked down by the Rotherham number six in the corner where the Kop meets the Midland Road stand), Dean Furman ran the midfield and was superb (as usual), Lee Bullock looked cumbersome to me – but I think he did win his fair share in the air and got forward to add muscular support to the front line. Kyle Nix, meanwhile, went from being the forgotten man to being a member of the starting eleven for the first time since… Well, I actually can’t remember the last time I saw him start a game, but he fitted right in in what may be his best position as a narrow left-midfielder (a role I believe he could play in either a midfield three or a diamond four). Steve Jones was nominally at centre-forward but got around the pitch and had some joy getting in between the Rotherham centre halves and full backs. Thorne pinched a goal that I thought was Dean Furman’s and later converted a cross from Nicky Law to add a second. Of the subs, Bower looked sharp, Colbeck did some positive work in attack (notably the crossfield pass to set up Steve Jones’s goal in the second half), and Paul McLaren was pretty anonymous (I don’t recall him touching the ball, to be honest).

The most disappointing element of this game was, for me, the booing of Joe Colbeck by one or two morons. I made a point of loudly cheering Joe on and applauding every good piece of play from the winger because I was narked by the idiocy of the prats behind me on the Kop who, instead of supporting their team and the individual members, chose to act on their prejudices and boo one of our most committed players. It was a particularly stupid act to boo Colbeck as he is a confidence player and could have been adversely affected by the catcalls. Fortunately, the booing morons were small in number and therefore relatively quiet in voice and Joe perhaps didn’t hear them. Or perhaps he did, and simply decided to be brave and try to play his usual game in defiance of the few know-nothings who don’t appreciate him (I must emphasise that there were only a few – the vast majority of City fans weren’t stupid enough to boo the oncoming substitute).

The most heartening thing was probably the show of support for McCall (at one point the top tier of the Kop broke in a new song – “Stuart, Stay With Us”), and the SOS banners were duly held aloft by myself and others in support of our manager. Actually, scratch that – the most heartening thing was the way the players responded. I’m used to the fans doing their bit, it was a very pleasant surprise indeed that the players did theirs too. Right from the off it was a good game and City were up against a team who looked like they should have been in the promotion places (which, of course, they would have been if not for the points deduction they suffered). Despite Rotherham’s performance, City got on top through Thorne’s two goals in the first half. The goals came through good work by Dean Furman in the first instance and Nicky Law in the second. Thorne could also have scored on several other occasions, notably when a cross from Jones found him at the far post and his shot was saved by Iker Casillas. I mean Gianluigi Buffon. No, I mean Andy Warrington. Having seen his shot saved, Thorne watched as Nicky Law hit the rebound into the Kop (although it came at Law quickly leaving little time to adjust his body and get a shot away). City’s third goal was a killer for Rotherham and it came when Rhys Evans palmed the ball into the path of Luke O’Brien, who beat his man and gave it to Colbeck. Colbeck carried the ball forward before hitting a superb crossfield pass to Jones, who took it on and beat the excellent Andy Warrington. I’m not a member of Warrington’s fan club – I just thought his performance on the day was stunning (the blond lad (Taylor?) wasn’t bad either). Without Warrington in goal, Rotherham could have conceded six or seven against a rampant Bradford City. Rhys Evans made one excellent save (I think with the score at 2-0) and at another point in the first half a free-kick led to Rotherham having shots blocked by defenders and saved by Evans. The best games of last season were, for me, Shrewsbury and Rotherham (4-2 and 3-2 respectively). The best game this season was yesterday’s against Rotherham. I’m almost looking forward to playing them next year. Hopefully when we do next play them we will have some of the players (and all of the management staff) who represented us so well yesterday.

Evans 7
Arnison 7
Lee 7
Rehman 8
O’Brien 8
Law 9
Furman 9
Bullock 6
Nix 7
Thorne 8
Jones 8

Subs: Bower 7, Colbeck 7, McLaren n/a.

When “Goodbye” Is The Hardest Word

Elton John was wrong. “Goodbye” is actually the hardest word to say, and it’s going to be pretty tough to have to say it to our hero and, currently, our manager Stuart McCall on Saturday (or at Chesterfield, if you have a ticket for our final away game). From the moment he stepped out for his first game in charge, through the bad times and the good, we’ve been together for the most part: fans, manager, chairmen, and players united. Footage of McCall apologising to the fans at Dagenham & Redbridge is upsetting to watch because he certainly looks like a man who is ready to take his leave. I don’t want this to be the end of the story – Roy of the Rovers didn’t finish this way and Stuart of the Bantams shouldn’t either.

There are several arguments against McCall leaving – whether sentimental or intellectual. Emotion demands that our hero stays with his club (here is just one of the examples of Stuart McCall’s Bradford Army – although a 30-second Youtube clip perhaps doesn’t quite capture the sentiment), a club that has been associated with McCall the boy, the man, and the manager since the beginning of the 1980s. When we had a fundraiser to help save the club, not only did McCall turn up and play – but the fans chanted that same song of “Stuart McCall’s Bradford Army” (even though he was employed by another club at the time!) and we called for him to take the penalty that was awarded because we wanted him to score, if only because it would have given us another excuse to chant our hero’s name.

Intellectually, McCall leaving simply doesn’t make sense. As BfB have pointed out, there is “a correlation between often changing managers and a lack of success” and anyone who doesn’t believe that can take a look for themselves – Alex Ferguson at Manchester United is a prime example of success following stability and a good counterexample of failure following instability is that of Jesus Gil’s tenure at Atletico Madrid. Gil oversaw a side managed by 16 men in 17 years. He also oversaw a side that was relegated to the Segunda Division at the end of the 1999-2000 season. As soccerlens.com put it “Under Gil, Atletico were desperately short of structure, long term plans and patience.” This lack of patience, this short-termism led to a humiliating relegation for Atletico. Is this the model we wish to follow at Valley Parade? Or should we consider the benefits of stability, as have been demonstrated at Manchester United? They hadn’t won the league since 1966-67 when Ferguson was appointed in 1986. This nineteen year drought became a gap of 26 years before Ferguson finally won the league – he was given seven years to get it right. What happened next? We all know, of course – over the course of eleven seasons, they won the league eight times. Cup-Winners Cup, Super Cup, European Cups, FA and League Cups, Intercontinental Cups, the World Championship… If that’s what stability brings then I say “bring it to Bradford”.

What does McCall bring to the club? Well, he brings his personal qualities: honesty, warmth, love for the club, the will to win. He also brings experience: according to Wikipedia he played a total of 763 league games during his playing career, the 12th highest of all British footballers; he experienced top flight football and an FA Cup final with Everton; 40 caps, two European Championships and a World Cup with Scotland; Scottish League Championships and European Cup nights at Rangers (he won six league titles, three Scottish Cups and two Scottish League Cups while there); promotion with Bradford City from the old Division 3 and the old Division 2 (in 1985 and 1999 respectively); promotion as part of Warnock’s management team at Sheffield United; and he now has two years’ experience as a manager in his own right at Bradford City. Another thing that should not be overlooked is his contact book: McCall played at Everton, Sheffield United and Rangers. Name three success stories this season and (apart from Luke O’Brien), I predict that the names Dean Furman and Nicky Law will feature. Law comes from Sheffield United and Furman from Rangers – would we have got them if our manager was, say, Dave Penney (to pick just one potential scenario)?

When I put up a poll on this post: Save our Stuart; I didn’t know what to expect. In the event, 33 people voted. One was a “don’t know”, thirty-two wanted McCall to stay, and not one single person voted that they wanted him to leave. Perhaps they agree with Roland Harris (and myself) that stability is what is needed? Perhaps they were unable to answer Michael Wood’s question if it wasn’t Stuart McCall then who would it be? Either way, the verdict seems clear – we want Stuart to stay. I’m not sure how to convince McCall that it would be the right thing, though. Perhaps we can take advantage of his hyper-self-critical* nature and guilt-trip him into staying by pretending that this club is solely his responsibility and that he therefore owes us for not getting promoted this season? It would be dishonest but, frankly, anything that might work is worth considering.

*I note that those people with true knowledge tend to underestimate their competence and that McCall’s claim to be a “crap manager” may fall into this category. This is part of the Dunning-Kruger effect – pdf – and the converse is that truly incompetent individuals often overestimate their abilities (they are “unskilled and unaware of it”). My hypothesis is that while those thousands of fantastic managers and tactical geniuses who sit in judgement over Stuart McCall (and Wayne Jacobs on occasion) are members of the set of individuals who are insufficiently competent to judge their own abilities and hence overestimate their skill, McCall is himself sufficiently competent to judge his own ability and consequently belongs to that set of individuals who underestimate their skill. I know who I want to run the club – and it isn’t the “tactical geniuses” in the stands at Valley Parade, it’s the man in the dugout.

City Fans: Confused

Reading the letters in the T&A sports section yesterday, I spotted a couple that criticised Stuart McCall for not playing a settled team every week. One of the letter writers went on to call on the manager to try using the players currently on the bench or in the reserves. He seemed not to realise that if McCall took his advice on starting with the players currently out of the first eleven he would have to ignore his advice about keeping a settled line-up. The advice McCall gets in the letters pages of the T&A or in online forums is on the whole muddled, contradictory and, frankly, worthless. This is a problem not just with City fans, but with football fans everywhere.

SOS – Save Our Stuart

The Boy From Brazil Website is discussing the possibility that McCall may resign as our manager. I for one would hate to see that happen. We have consolidated our position under McCall and begun to improve the squad, results, and performances. I’d hate to see McCall quit or be sacked, not just because he was my favourite footballer when I was ten and just starting to go to games, but because: his management career has only just started, and it’s started well – if we stick with him we might get the best years of his managerial career; we need stability at this club – not a procession of managers coming and going; we aren’t likely to attract too many good quality managers to this club while we’re in the fourth division of English football – who do people think we’ll get, Capello? Scolari? Mourinho?

One suggestion (from Wayne McManus) was that we should try for Peter Jackson. The same Peter Jackson that has failed to get Lincoln within three wins of the play-offs, despite having reportedly out-bid us for players in the close season? Yes, that one. Why do people think he’d do any better? I suspect that if you asked them they wouldn’t know. I don’t think the calls for McCall to leave or Jacko to come in are rational and I don’t think they are well thought-out – I think they are knee-jerk responses from fans who either aren’t all that knowledgeable about football, or just aren’t the type of person to think things through. While they “go with their gut”, I will continue to try and think with my brain. I’m pretty sure that’s what it’s for.

Bradford City 0-0 Chester City

Chester came for a point and they obviously decided the best way to do that was to play rough, time-waste, and feign injury. Cynical. To sum up the game in a few words, we were up against a team out to frustrate us and stop us playing, we still made a few chances and plenty of half-chances but we just weren’t clinical enough or decisive enough in the box.