Having been the main talking point throughout this season, the managerial change has now come to pass. Manager, former player, club legend, and all-round good guy Stuart McCall – Bradford City’s own Roy of the Rovers – has left the club for the third time.
This will probably be his final exit. Losing 1-0 at home to Bury, in a game which in my view struggled to rise above the mediocre, is not the send-off I would have wished for Stuart McCall.
I hope that fans of the club will remember Stuart as a player who gave his all for the club and inspired fellow players and fans alike. I hope that they will remember him as a manager who tried to send teams out to play football – rather than to cynically hack, dive, and otherwise cheat (I suspect that not all managers in League Two could claim that they have tried to do likewise). I hope that they remember him as a fantastic ambassador for the club.
I also hope they remember that they probably contributed to McCall’s departure. The message boards have buzzed with anti-McCall sentiment. We have seen patronising comments about him being a good player but “never a manager”, and even some comments that were noxious and offensive.
Well, the “McCall out” brigade have got their way.
For my part, I accept that our results (and at times performances) have been lacking – and that McCall’s departure is far from shocking, particularly in the modern football world.
However, he has gone and we must all now move on. The only problem is – where are we moving on to?
In 2004, Newcastle United decided to sack Bobby Robson on the basis of the first four matches of the season despite his performances in previous seasons (fourth, third and fifth in the Premier League).
Think for a moment about how Newcastle have fared since Robson left. Souness, Roeder, Allardyce, Keegan, Kinnear, Hughton, and Shearer have all been in the manager’s office at Newcastle since then and the finishing positions in the Premier League under the managers following Robson have been 14, 13, 7, 12 and 18.
I’ve made the point before that managers given time to succeed are more likely to do so. Ferguson has been at Manchester United for 23 years and Wenger at Arsenal for 13. What of Jesus Gil’s tenure at Atletico Madrid. Gil oversaw a side managed by 16 men in 17 years. He also oversaw a side that was relegated to the Segunda Division at the end of the 1999-2000 season.
As soccerlens.com put it “Under Gil, Atletico were desperately short of structure, long term plans and patience.” This lack of patience, this short-termism led to a humiliating relegation for Atletico. Is this the model we wish to follow at Valley Parade?
Alex Ferguson, on the other hand, took seven years to win the league at Manchester United and followed that success with eight further league titles in eleven years (not to mention considerable success in cup competitions and Europe).
It is easy enough to find examples of stability and faith in a manager being rewarded and to find examples of instability leading to failure. If I wanted to, I might even be able to cherry-pick some examples that showed quite the opposite. It should be possible to find at least one trigger-happy chairman who has found success after operating a revolving-door policy for managers.
How do we get a better idea of the effect that sacking managers has on subsequent performance? Not by cherry-picking individual examples that support our viewpoint, but by looking at how a number of clubs have performed.
This PDF attempts to answer the question “What is the Impact of Changing Football Manager?”
The author discusses the “honeymoon period” that is often remarked upon by fans. When a new manager comes in there will often, but not always, be a temporary improvement in performances and results. This, however, is usually a short-term gain. The author writes that:
in the Premier League, at least, there is a boost for a short honeymoon period and then performance dips back – and indeed slightly below the level that it was before the club changed manager. Between 12 and 18 games after appointment, the points’ benefit of changing manager has vanished, suggesting that on average there is only a short-term gain and a longer-term negative effect of changing manager.
From the conclusion:
Overall, changing manager seems to have a negligible effect on how well the club does over the longer-term. Indeed, if we look at the Premier League since 1992, it would appear that clubs do rather less well once the initial honeymoon period has passed than they did before changing their manager.
There are also some very interesting data from other sports that are alluded to in the conclusions of this paper.
research from baseball and American Football (Gamson and Scotch 1964, Brown 1982 respectively) suggests that when a coach is not sacked performance seems to turn in a pattern similar to that seen when the club changes manager. The conclusion seems to be that managerial changes in football do little to improve performance.
The author also tells us that Lieberson and O’Connor suggest that performance is more influenced by other aspects such as resources. So perhaps performance is affected by the quality of players, injuries or just bad luck.
If quality of players, injuries, and bad luck have more effect on performance and results than the manager, it seems a little perverse that McCall departure has coincided almost exactly with the return to fitness of key players – such as Omar Daley.
Another key player who has been missing is the man who was named as captain at the beginning of the season. When your captain, senior professional, and leading goalscorer over the previous two seasons is injured it is not surprising if the struggles. Or, at least, it shouldn’t be.
The problems City have had this season are strongly linked, in my opinion, to their failure to put chances away. While our main goalscorer has been injured, only James Hanson has stepped up and filled part of the gap. The rest of the team has struggled to score goals even when several good chances have been created. We managed (I think) 26 shots against Crewe Alexandra, scored only two goals, and lost the game.
Thorne’s return might make this a honeymoon period for the new manager to enjoy. Whoever they are.
Its ashame he has gone, becasue nobody who comes in will want the club to do better more than him.
But in the same way as Stuart McCall needs to move on, Bradford city need to do the same.
We need a manager with experiance. We need that manager sooner rather than later. We need a manager who will come in for the rest of the season, pick up on the short comings of players, and have time to improve them before the summer, in which the new manager can decided if they are right players for the club. Then next season can be a move forward.
I’d like to see a manager come in who will win the hearts of the fans with the performance and results on the pitch, not a history he has had with the club.
I’d also like people to note that while I am not going to ‘BOARD BASH’ or anything, the T&A reported that Stuart McCall had not spoken to Mark Lawn for a couple of months since the relationship got strained. Now a couple of months is November, in which our bad run has been since. I wonder how much of the behind the scenes issues rub off on the players.
While I wish Wayne jacobs the best of luck for the next few games, if the results don’t change straight away i feel he will be in the firing line of the fans.
Good piece. I agree with just about every point made. I’m desperately disappointed for Stuart. There can be no doubt that he is Bradford City through-and-through and that he was desperate to achieve success. I seriously doubt whether he could have worked or tried any harder. It just hasn’t happened for him. I think he’s had the cruelest of luck with injuries, refereeing decisions and basic errors by players who should know better. I think in some ways he may have tried too hard and the players may have been trying too hard on his behalf. I know it sounds crazy but it can happen. I dont think he should have left now. I certainly dont think we should be looking for a manager to take us to the end of the season and then say we’re going to appoint a long term successor in the summer. Where’s the sense in that? The new man has an ideal opportunity to come in now, assess what we’ve got and decide who’s not up to it for next year. If he sees this, I’d like him to know I’ve been a big fan of his since he first pulled on a city shirt, I worked in Scotland amongst Rangers fans who think the guy is a legend, and hope that when he takes up his next position, wherever it may be, he relaxes and keeps belief in himself. I’m sure he’ll be successful one day.
@Justin Brett
Interesting point re McCall’s relationship with Lawn. I suspect it will at least have had some effect on the team. Personally, I think we need stability and harmony on and off the field. A club divided on the terraces or in the boardroom is probably in as much trouble as one divided in the dressing room (speaking of which – slightly unpleasant scenes at half-time on Saturday with players at each others’ throats*).
Totally agree with you re Wayne Jacobs. Good luck to him, but some fans have been out for his blood since he took the assistant job. I can’t see Wayne getting much of a “honeymoon period” from the fans.
Thanks for commenting.
*Meaning the spat between Flynn and Daley in the centre circle.
@AJ Pitts
Thanks for the comment.
“I think in some ways he may have tried too hard and the players may have been trying too hard on his behalf. I know it sounds crazy but it can happen.”
Agree with this. I think that when you are desperate to succeed and ‘trying too hard’ you just aren’t relaxed enough to do yourself justice. I’ve noticed this in jobs I’ve had. It would not surprise me in the least if the same were true of footballers and managers.
When I left Bradford for Texas, Bradford were in the Premiership. I will always love Stuart McCall for his tireless endevour as a player. All Bradford City fans will hold him in the highest regard. But my maths is as good as the next man and although a great player and a great person, it does not mean he will turn into a great manager. Of course i’m sad to see him go. I haven’t had to endure a demise so alarming. But back to math and considering the size of the club and where we are, there is only one candidate on my list. Keith Hill. Get him in asap.
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